Sergio Fajardo’s bad time in Colombian politics seems to be longer than thought. The candidate who in 2022 preferred to stay away from the second round to watch whales, seems like he would enter political death, but not due to inability, but rather due to lack of credibility on the part of Colombians.
Two of the most consulted measurements in the country show Fajardo lagging behind, far from the percentages he had in previous contests. In the latest Guarumo survey, the candidate barely registers 3% voting intention. The situation is even more critical in the RCN/GAD3 poll, where his support falls to 1%.
These figures currently place it below the “magic number” of 4% of valid votes, an essential requirement required by Law 996 of 2005 (Guarantees Law) to access the replacement of expenses by the State.
The business of collecting votes could have come to an end
In Colombia, the replacement of votes works as a reimbursement: the State pays a fixed value for each vote obtained, as long as the 4% threshold is exceeded. For the 2026 elections, the National Electoral Council (CNE) has projected replacement values that seek to compensate for the high costs of logistics, advertising and transportation.
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If the elections were held today, and the poll results held:
No refund: By not reaching 4%, Fajardo and the movement that supports him (such as the Dignity and Compromiso Party) would have to assume all of the debts incurred.
Risk of political bankruptcy: For a presidential campaign, which usually moves billions of pesos, falling below the threshold can mean a financial disaster that is difficult to recover for future aspirations.
The country would be charging Fajardo for not wanting to join the true center coalition, which also showed that the candidate does not seem to care about Colombia and would only like to look at his wallet.
Nobody pays attention to Fajardo anymore: his aspiration to charge for the replacement of votes trembles because it does not reach the threshold
️ Guarumo and El Tiempo Survey from January 14 to 22 (4,245, in person):
Cepeda: 33.6%
Abelard: 18.2%
Pigeon: 6.9%
Vicky: 4.1%
Fajardo: 3.9%Cepeda for 30%, ABDE for 20%, Paloma goes up, Fajardo’s deflation is incredible, Pinzon down, potential great consultation: 21.2%. pic.twitter.com/EqauBU3kHC
— Luis Angel (@luisangelgd) January 24, 2026