colombianherald.com

The most recent survey by the firm AtlasIntel, revealed this Saturday, has generated a political earthquake in Colombia. According to the survey data, lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella has established himself as the leader in voting intentions for the Presidency of the Republic with 32.1%, narrowly surpassing Senator Iván Cepeda, who registers 31.4%.

However, the data that has surprised analysts the most and that redefines the country’s electoral geography is not the national advantage, but the behavior of voters in the capital.

Bogotá is no longer the “fortress” of Petrism

Traditionally considered the heart of the progressive vote and an impregnable bastion for Gustavo Petro’s government, Bogotá appears to be turning sharply to the right. According to the detailed results by region:

In the capital, Abelardo de la Espriella doubles the votes of Iván Cepeda, the strongest candidate on the left.

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This phenomenon is unprecedented, given that Bogotá was the city that promoted the definitive victories of the current government in 2022.

The growth of De la Espriella in the capital suggests a significant erosion of the ruling party in urban centers and support for the “iron fist” positions and defense of individual freedoms that the lawyer has turned into his campaign banner.

The pulse for the second round

The survey also evaluated possible second round scenarios. In a direct confrontation between the two leaders, the coin is still up in the air due to the margin of error of 1%, but De la Espriella’s advantage in key areas such as Bogotá and Antioquia (where he sweeps with more than 80% in his internal consultation) makes him the strongest rival to beat.

This result puts the left-wing sectors on high alert, who see how their capital “fortress” begins to succumb to the speech of the controversial lawyer, who has managed to capitalize on citizen discontent on issues of security and economy.

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